NCT07188636

Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Non-cardiac Surgery: Development and Validation of the Surgical Mortality Model

Development and Validation of the Surgical Mortality Model for Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Non-cardiac Surgery: A Retrospective Multi-center Cohort Study

• Status: Completed
• Phase: —
• Study type: Observational
• Enrollment: 642,377 (actual)
• Sponsor: Asan Medical Center · Academic / Other
• Sex: All
• Age: 18 Years
• Healthy volunteers: —

Summary

This study aims to develop and validate a simple, accurate model to predict mortality after non-cardiac surgery.

Detailed description

This retrospective multi-center cohort study aimed to develop and externally validate a predictive model for postoperative mortality in adult patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. The development cohort included patients from Asan Medical Center, and validation was performed using data from Seoul National University Hospital and Samsung Medical Center. Mortality was assessed at 30 days, 180 days, 1 year, and overall follow-up. The model was developed using LASSO logistic regression and evaluated for discrimination and calibration across cohorts.

Conditions

• Mortality Prediction

Interventions

Type	Name	Description
OTHER	No Intervention: Observational Cohort	Participants underwent non-cardiac surgery and were followed retrospectively without any experimental intervention. Data were collected from electronic medical records and national death registry to assess postoperative mortality outcomes.

Timeline

• Start date: 2024-07-30
• Primary completion: 2024-12-20
• Completion: 2025-01-20
• First posted: 2025-09-23
• Last updated: 2025-09-23

Locations

1 site across 1 country: South Korea