NCT06685263

Development of Perioperative Delirium Prediction Model

Development of a Perioperative Delirium Prediction Model in Patients Undergoing Cardiovascular Surgery

• Status: Not Yet Recruiting
• Phase: —
• Study type: Observational
• Enrollment: 770 (estimated)
• Sponsor: Kubra Gunes · Academic / Other
• Sex: All
• Age: 18 Years
• Healthy volunteers: Not accepted

Summary

Postoperative delirium is an acute organic brain dysfunction that is commonly observed following cardiovascular surgery. It presents with acute and fluctuating changes in the level of consciousness, resulting in impaired cognitive function and perception. The incidence of delirium following cardiac surgery has been reported to range from 11.4% to 55%. In light of the challenges associated with treating delirium once it has manifested, it is imperative to prioritise the early recognition and prevention of this condition. The objective of this study was to develop a perioperative delirium risk prediction model for patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery.

Detailed description

Postoperative delirium is associated with an increased incidence of postoperative complications, which in turn lead to cognitive dysfunction, increased mortality, and the need for long-term care. It is predicted in the literature that the early detection of delirium cases, of which 30% are known to be preventable, improves prognosis. Accordingly, a prediction model based on the identification of delirium risk factors can categorise intensive care patients into distinct risk levels according to their probability of developing delirium, thus enabling healthcare professionals to ascertain the likelihood of delirium and implement suitable preventive measures. A review of the literature reveals the existence of numerous delirium prediction models designed to identify patients at high risk of developing delirium. However, there is a paucity of studies examining models for predicting delirium risk in the context of cardiovascular surgery. The objective of this study is to develop a delirium risk prediction model for the perioperative period in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery.

Conditions

• Cardiovascular Surgery

Interventions

Type	Name	Description
BEHAVIORAL	Group 1	The development group comprises 385 individuals. Following the data collection phase of the development group, the independent risk factors for the onset of delirium will be identified through statistical analysis. A delirium prediction model will then be constructed using the identified risk factors.
BEHAVIORAL	Group 2	The validation group comprises 385 individuals. The delirium prediction model created using the data from the development group will be validated by testing the data from the validation group. This will enable the evaluation of the model's fit and calibration in predicting delirium.

Timeline

• Start date: 2024-12-15
• Primary completion: 2025-12-15
• Completion: 2026-05-30
• First posted: 2024-11-12
• Last updated: 2024-11-12